Thursday, June 16, 2011

Cutting Tulo in Half

Troy Tulowitzki was a sexy preseason pick as the Most Valuable Player in the National League this year, and while Tulo hasn't exactly been bad, he hasn't really played at an MVP level, either.

But I wouldn't worry about it. Tulo has always been a pure second-half player; his numbers have improved after the All-Star Break every season of his career. And this is arguably the best first half of his career, comparable only to that of his rookie year. He's already set a career high in homers for the first half of the season, with 13, when his previous best was nine.

Take a look at this: Here are Tulowitzki's basic numbers, broken down by first half and second half, prorated to a 150-game season.

First Half
BA: .265 HR: 23 RBI: 77 Runs: 90 OBP: .340 Slugging: .456

Second Half
BA: .314 HR: 29 RBI: 111 Runs: 101 OBP: .382 Slugging: .541

So in the first half, he's the meh Cal Ripken, the run-of-the-mill All-Star shortstop of 1986 or 1996. In the second half, he's the MVP Cal Ripken of 1983 or 1991.

Tulowitzki has been accused of being a Coors Field creation, but his first half/second half splits are more dramatic than his home/road splits. If he's helped significantly by Coors, he's also helped significantly by July, August and September. And hopefully October.

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